A forecast El Niño this strong has little modern precedent, and India enters it already behind: monsoon rainfall ran about 14% short through August 2026 (IMD, as reported by NewsBytes, 2026). The hardest tests for farmers and food prices may arrive in 2027.
Why this El Niño is different
Godzilla’ is a nickname and not a official category. The chances of a very strong event this winter are also more than 90% according to NOAA and it could be the largest in living memory according to the UK Met Office (Parade, 2026; House of Commons Library, 2026). WMO forecast that it will strengthen and remain active until February 2027 (Business Today, 2026).
There are two elements which make it more exciting. First, it’s above a much warmer baseline, so heat extremes add to the long-term warming; one estimate predicts that 2027 will be close to 1.8°C warmer than pre-industrial times (OneIndia, 2026, citing Hausfather). Second, models predict that such events are happening more frequently. Under greenhouse warming, the frequency of extreme El Niño is projected to almost double by Cai et al. (2014), and the frequency is projected to continue increasing for more than a century even when temperatures are stabilized at 1.5°C by Wang et al. (2017).
The monsoon: a risk factor, not a verdict
The monsoon rainfall over India is suppressed in El Niño due to abnormal subsidence associated with the Walker circulation (Athira et al., 2023). However, there is a statistical relationship. It has strengthened from 1901 until 1980, weakened since then, and has been rebuilt since around 1999/2000 as conditions in the tropical Atlantic changed (Yang & Huang, 2021; Athira et al., 2023). It is also regionally different with more intensity over north India, less intensity over the core monsoon zone, and uniform over south India (Athira et al., 2023). The month of July and August signals have shifted over decades even within the season (Srivastava et al., 2020).
The positive Indian Ocean Dipole helped bring rains in during El Niño seasons of 1994 and 1997, but Roxy Mathew Koll, who works at IITM, has stated that the chances of that this year are very low (Deccan Chronicle, 2026). According to IMD, 2026 was 90% of the long period average (ICRA, 2026) and the month of August was 16% below the long period average (Business Today, 2026) in the hottest August since 1901.
Strong events generally tend to occur around the end of the year and weaken prior to the onset of the next monsoon, therefore the 2027 rainfall depends on the rate at which El Niño weakens and the Dipole (NewsBytes, 2026; OneIndia, 2026).
Agriculture: kharif losses and rabi heat
Kharif – Using data from the districts, Gurazada et al. (2024) identified El Niño’s impact on production and yields, showing that in over 70% of crop districts, production and yields decreased, with maize and pearl millet experiencing greater decreases than rice. A 2002-2004-2009 study by ICAR-IIFSR found a decline in paddy and maize production in more than 20 districts by more than 10% (Climate Fact Checks, 2026). India experiences rapid transition from rainfall deficits to yields, income and prices as nearly 50% of the country’s farmland is rain-fed (Climate Fact Checks, 2026).
The damage is exacerbated by heat. According to Mishra et al., 2020, hot and dry monsoon extremes negatively impact staple crop yields and are more likely to happen during El Niño years. From 1951 to 2018 there were seven concurrent hot-dry seasons in India and the number is expected to increase by 1.5 times in the current century (Mishra et al., 2020).
Rabi – There is increased potential for terminal heat stress in wheat with warmer winters (Business Today, 2026). Dubey et al., 2020 projected a 18.1% loss in yield due to terminal heat stress under current situation. A March heat wave in 2022 reduced the output to approximately 107 million tonnes, well below the forecast of 111 million tonnes, and was made about 30 times more likely by climate change (Scroll.in, 2022, Newslaundry, 2024).
Food security: buffers matter more than averages
In India, the main product output has almost tripled since 1951, but there exists a strong correlation between year-to-year changes in the output and year-to-year changes in June–September monsoon rainfall (r = 0.71 and 0.70, respectively, for foodgrain output and rice output) (Mishra et al., 2020). If it was a second weak crop, the world markets would be stretched, export curbs, stock releases and price controls would be put to the test once again (OneIndia, 2026). ICRA projects GVA of agriculture sector to grow below 1.5% in FY2027 and also puts fertiliser availability as an additional risk (ICRA, 2026).
What India can do now
India can still blunt the worst of this El Niño if it acts before the damage shows. District administrations should revise contingency crop plans after every IMD update and keep safety nets ready for release before May 2027 (OneIndia, 2026). In rainfed areas, moving some maize and rice acreage to sorghum and finger millet could lower year-to-year production swings (Gurazada et al., 2024). For wheat, earlier sowing, an extra dose of nitrogen and irrigation at grain filling reduce losses from terminal heat stress (Dubey et al., 2020). El Niño raises the odds of a poor year but does not decide the outcome, and preparing now is far cheaper than responding after yields fall.
Clear Cut Climate Desk
New Delhi, UPDATED: November 12, 2026 15:49 IST
Written By: Subhanshu Jaiswal
Designation: Assistant Manager – MLE at Devinsights
